Washington Wizards at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints22
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds5
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Tyler HerroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q48.1Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point jumper114–121
- Q413.0shot clock turnover111–121
- Q437.0Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 2111–121
- Q437.0Anthony Gill makes free throw 1 of 2110–121
- Q437.0Tyler Herro personal foul109–121
- Q440.0shot clock turnover109–121
- Q440.1Kyle Lowry offensive rebound109–121
- Q440.1Ryan Rollins blocks Bam Adebayo 's 2-foot driving dunk109–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:46Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 26 – 20 MIA · WSH 49% → 56% +7WSH 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q14:22Haywood Highsmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)WSH 26 – 23 MIA · MIA 44% → 51% +7MIA 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q13:35Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Richardson assists)WSH 26 – 26 MIA · MIA 51% → 58% +7MIA 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q148.2Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)WSH 34 – 34 MIA · WSH 36% → 43% +7WSH 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q25:55Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)WSH 46 – 52 MIA · MIA 64% → 71% +7MIA 64% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 59%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.4 – 114.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −22 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +63 Elo | MIA 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 104.627th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.3 | Points allowed | 111.615th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.0 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 104.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 111.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.4 | Pace | 100.425th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.