Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints26
- Marcus SmartAssists6
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds10
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints27
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–113
- Q411.1Deni Avdija defensive rebound106–113
- Q415.1Ziaire Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper106–113
- Q418.1David Roddy defensive rebound106–113
- Q420.1Jordan Poole misses free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q420.1Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 2106–113
- Q420.1Desmond Bane personal foul106–112
- Q423.0Desmond Bane makes driving layup (Marcus Smart assists)106–112
- Q427.0Delon Wright enters the game for Tyus Jones104–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:12David Roddy makes three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)MEM 25 – 27 WSH · MEM 33% → 40% +7MEM 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q29:19David Roddy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)MEM 30 – 32 WSH · MEM 33% → 40% +7MEM 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:57Corey Kispert makes 31-foot three point jumper (Danilo Gallinari assists)MEM 30 – 35 WSH · WSH 60% → 67% +7WSH 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q28:30Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 31-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)MEM 33 – 35 WSH · MEM 33% → 40% +7MEM 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q27:15Deni Avdija makes 28-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)MEM 35 – 40 WSH · WSH 60% → 67% +7WSH 60% → 67%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -126
- MEM +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.9 – 114.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −64 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +34 Elo | WSH 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30104.0 | Points scored | 120.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 143.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −23.030th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Offense rating | 106.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 30104.8 | Defense rating | 126.530th of 30 |
| 11th of 30104.5 | Pace | 114.01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Grizzlies: last 2