New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints24
- CJ McCollumAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints31
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Xavier TillmanRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–104
- Q46.1Xavier Tillman Sr. makes layup (David Roddy assists)111–104
- Q420.1Desmond Bane defensive rebound111–102
- Q424.1Dyson Daniels misses 26-foot three point jumper111–102
- Q438.1Brandon Ingram defensive rebound111–102
- Q443.2David Roddy misses running pullup jump shot111–102
- Q447.1Herbert Jones bad pass (Xavier Tillman Sr. steals)111–102
- Q456.1Desmond Bane makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot111–102
- Q41:03Dyson Daniels enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas111–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:55Matt Ryan makes 26-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 35 – 33 MEM · NO 43% → 51% +7NO 43% → 51%+7 pts
- Q27:45Matt Ryan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)NO 38 – 33 MEM · NO 51% → 58% +8NO 51% → 58%+8 pts
- Q25:55Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matt Ryan assists)NO 44 – 37 MEM · NO 56% → 64% +8NO 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q39:13CJ McCollum makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 62 – 51 MEM · NO 71% → 78% +8NO 71% → 78%+8 pts
- Q49:53CJ McCollum makes 26-foot step back jumpshotNO 90 – 79 MEM · NO 80% → 89% +8NO 80% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- MEM 55%
- Fair odds
- MEM -123
- NO +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.8 – 114.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | MEM +36 Elo | MEM 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.