Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds7
Pacers- Bruce BrownPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Jalen SmithRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–143
- Q48.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound120–143
- Q411.0Jared Butler misses 9-foot two point shot120–143
- Q422.1Isaiah Jackson makes 1-foot dunk (Jordan Nwora assists)120–143
- Q426.1Ryan Rollins lost ball turnover (Jarace Walker steals)120–141
- Q430.1Ryan Rollins defensive rebound120–141
- Q432.1Isaiah Jackson misses layup120–141
- Q441.1Pacers offensive team rebound120–141
- Q441.1Jarace Walker misses tip shot120–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:57Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 47 – 46 IND · WSH 41% → 48% +8WSH 41% → 48%+8 pts
- Q25:52Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three point shot (Buddy Hield assists)WSH 49 – 53 IND · IND 57% → 64% +8IND 57% → 64%+8 pts
- Q21:53Buddy Hield makes three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)WSH 61 – 67 IND · IND 62% → 70% +8IND 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q26.1Kyle Kuzma makes 30-foot step back jumpshot (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 68 – 73 IND · WSH 25% → 32% +7WSH 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q311:07Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)WSH 70 – 78 IND · IND 68% → 76% +8IND 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 55%
- Fair odds
- IND -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.9 – 114.5 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | IND +36 Elo | IND 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.