Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds13
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Marcus SmartAssists5
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–104
- Q41.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound108–104
- Q41.1Desmond Bane misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot108–104
- Q44.0Xavier Tillman enters the game for Derrick Rose108–104
- Q44.0Grizzlies Full timeout108–104
- Q47.2Ziaire Williams defensive rebound108–104
- Q410.0Nikola Jokic misses free throw 2 of 2108–104
- Q410.0Derrick Rose enters the game for Xavier Tillman108–104
- Q410.0Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:30Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)DEN 97 – 96 MEM · MEM 23% → 40% +16MEM 23% → 40%+16 pts
- Q43:44Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 100 – 98 MEM · DEN 46% → 68% +22DEN 46% → 68%+22 pts
- Q43:04Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumperDEN 103 – 98 MEM · DEN 69% → 87% +18DEN 69% → 87%+18 pts
- Q444.0Marcus Smart makes 14-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 105 – 104 MEM · MEM 10% → 32% +23MEM 10% → 32%+23 pts
- Q432.0Aaron Gordon makes 2-foot dunk (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 107 – 104 MEM · DEN 70% → 94% +23DEN 70% → 94%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 64%
- Fair odds
- DEN -167
- MEM +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.3 – 111.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +119 | −7 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +97 Elo | DEN 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 104.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 111.015th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+12.0 | Margin | −7.024th of 30 |
| 4th of 30122.0 | Offense rating | 99.325th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 106.09th of 30 |
| 25th of 3097.5 | Pace | 104.313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+119 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Nuggets: last 1