Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints21
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- LeBron JamesRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–119
- Q424.0Cam Reddish makes free throw 2 of 2107–119
- Q424.0Cam Reddish makes free throw 1 of 2106–119
- Q424.0Peyton Watson shooting foul105–119
- Q431.2Jalen Pickett makes 17-foot pullup jump shot105–119
- Q443.1Jalen Pickett enters the game for Aaron Gordon105–117
- Q443.1Braxton Key enters the game for Jamal Murray105–117
- Q443.1Peyton Watson enters the game for Nikola Jokic105–117
- Q443.1Collin Gillespie enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope105–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:38Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)LAL 69 – 78 DEN · DEN 73% → 81% +8DEN 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q410:38Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot step back jumpshotLAL 84 – 90 DEN · DEN 66% → 77% +11DEN 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q49:42LeBron James makes 29-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)LAL 89 – 92 DEN · LAL 22% → 34% +12LAL 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q49:08Christian Braun makes two point shotLAL 89 – 94 DEN · DEN 67% → 75% +8DEN 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q48:17Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)LAL 90 – 97 DEN · DEN 72% → 83% +11DEN 72% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 57%
- Fair odds
- DEN -132
- LAL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.6 – 114.7 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +48 Elo | DEN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.