NBA · 2026-27
Miami Heat
5-6 · #21 of 30 by Elo
Elo rating
1460
#21 of 30 · 1500 is average
Market rating
1513
#15 of 30 by recent lines
This season
−36
Elo change since opening night
Forecasts on their games
64%
7–4 this season
Offense
+2.5 pts
#3 of 30 · scored a game above average
Defense
−3.7 pts
#26 of 30 · allowed a game below average
By the numbers
This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are.
- Points scored
- 115.7
- 11th of 30
- Points allowed
- 120.0
- 26th fewest of 30
- Margin
- −4.3
- 19th of 30
- Offense rating
- 110.0
- 19th of 30
- Defense rating
- 114.0
- 24th of 30
- Pace
- 104.2
- 3rd of 30
- Last 10
- 5–5
- 13th of 27
- At home
- 1–3
- 23rd of 30
- On the road
- 4–3
- 12th of 30
- Opponent Elo
- 1494
- 19th toughest of 30
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026-27 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works
Projected record
42-40
Now 5-6 · middle 80%: 36–48 wins
Make the playoffs
69%
Play-in: 68%
About 40 wins usually gets them in
Reach the NBA Finals
1%
Win it all
<1%
In 6 of 10,000 simulations
Playoff chances this season
Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 69%.
Upcoming
Forecasts for their next games. Their next 5 opponents average 1560 Elo, the 5th-toughest stretch of the league's 30.
Cavaliers
5-6
Heat
5-6
Pistons
7-3
Heat
5-6
Rockets
8-3
Heat
5-6
Bucks
1-10
Heat
5-6
Thunder
8-2
Heat
5-6
Heat
5-6
76ers
9-3
Players
Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.
Rating history
Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.
Against the line
This season, against each game's closing spread and total.
- Against the spread
- 2–9
- Last 10
- 2–8
- As the favorite
- 1–6
- As the underdog
- 1–3
- Overs–unders
- 4–7
- Overs–unders, last 10
- 4–6
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Recent results
Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.
Last 10, oldest first: L L L W W L W L W W
- W
@ UTAH 115–109Picked MIA 78%Nov 10Hit - W
@ SAC 114–108Picked MIA 83%Nov 8Hit - L
@ GS 100–120Picked GS 62%Nov 5Hit - W
@ LAC 117–116Picked MIA 65%Nov 4Hit - L
@ LAL 117–138Picked LAL 55%Nov 2Hit - W
vs IND 145–125Picked MIA 73%Oct 30Hit - W
@ ATL 129–117Picked ATL 55%Oct 28Miss - L
vs DAL 109–113Picked MIA 71%Oct 26Miss - L
@ CHA 110–115Picked MIA 60%Oct 24Miss - L
vs DET 111–128Picked DET 53%Oct 23Hit
Injury report
Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.
Nothing on the injury report.