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Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Cavaliers

5-6

50%

at

Home

Heat

5-6

50%

The pick
MIA · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
118–118
Fair odds
-102

Your pick

Kaseya Center · DAZN CLE

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Heat 50%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Cavaliers rate higher (1548 to 1460 Elo), lineup changes favor the Heat and the Heat have home court.
  • It's moved toward the Heat since we first logged it, from 45% to 50%.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Cavaliers

Now 92%

93%

with a win

90%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Heat

Now 69%

73%

with a win

66%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

How the forecast moved

MIA went from 45% to 50% over 2 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (MIA win chance) Betting line, margin removed
40%50%60%Mon 10 PMTue 11 AMWed 12 AM

The pick

Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Heat 50%

Toss-up
CLE 50%MIA 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIA 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -1
MIA 46%
Fair odds
MIA -102
CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CLE 117.7 – 117.8 MIA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEMIAWhy
Team rating15481460Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−17+28CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel—−24MIA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsCLE +31 EloCLE 54.4%
Market-implied ratingsMIA 51.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIA 50.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatMIA
10th of 30116.5Points scored115.711th of 30
19th of 30115.0Points allowed120.026th of 30
15th of 30+1.5Margin−4.319th of 30
13th of 30113.3Offense rating110.019th of 30
15th of 30111.8Defense rating114.024th of 30
10th of 30102.0Pace104.23rd of 30
13th of 275–5Last 105–513th of 27
22nd of 301–4Road vs home1–323rd of 30
11th of 301518Opponent Elo149419th of 30
10th of 301548Elo rating146021st of 30
6th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted+2.53rd of 30
16th of 30−0.5Defense, adjusted−3.726th of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →
PlayerProjLineOverParlay
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA26.1—— No line
Donovan MitchellCLE22.1—— No line
Bam AdebayoMIA18.9—— No line
James HardenCLE15.9—— No line
Evan MobleyCLE15.6—— No line
Klay ThompsonMIA14.1—— No line
Davion MitchellMIA13.3—— No line
Peyton WatsonCLE11.9—— No line
Meleek ThomasCLE11.8—— No line
Pelle LarssonMIA11.2—— No line
Jarrett AllenCLE10.6—— No line
Andrew WigginsMIA10.0—— No line
Bobby PortisMIA8.5—— No line
Mario HezonjaCLE8.2—— No line
Tyrese ProctorCLE8.1—— No line
Thomas BryantCLE5.8—— No line
Ryan ConwellMIA5.2—— No line
Keshad JohnsonMIA4.9—— No line
Craig Porter Jr.CLE2.4—— No line

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Donovan Mitchell3128.1Available
James Harden3123.2Available
Evan Mobley3024.4Available
Peyton Watson2516.5Available
Meleek Thomas2217.9Available
Jarrett Allen2226.0Available
Mario Hezonja2017.4Available
Tyrese Proctor1917.5Available
Thomas Bryant1118.9Available
Craig Porter Jr.1117.2Available
Riley Minix718.9Available
Ernest Udeh Jr.517.9Available

Heat

+28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Davion Mitchell3516.4Available
Bam Adebayo3324.0Available
Giannis Antetokounmpo3135.0Available
Pelle Larsson2816.9Available
Klay Thompson2615.9Available
Andrew Wiggins2417.4Available
Bobby Portis1818.9Available
Ryan Conwell1617.0Available
Keshad Johnson1020.4Available
Tim Hardaway Jr.816.4Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersHeat
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Cavaliers

2 listed

  • Sam Merrill G

    Out

    Merrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.

  • Jaylon Tyson G

    Out

    Tyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.

Heat

Nothing on the injury report.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLEMIA
Against the spread2–72–9
Last 102–72–8
Favorite1–51–6
Underdog1–21–3
Overs–unders5–44–7
Overs–unders, last 105–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 9–6 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.