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Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast

FinalCLE leads series 3-0

Away

Cavaliers

64-18

124–87

at

Home

Heat

37-45

CLE 64%MIA 36%

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Kaseya Center · TNT, FanDuel SN Sun, FanDuel SN OH

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.

MIA favored CLE favored100 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIA50%CLE

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cavaliers
Heat

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game124–87
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–87
  • Q40.1shot clock turnover124–87
  • Q425.0Pelle Larsson makes 23-foot three point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)124–87
  • Q429.1Nikola Jovic defensive rebound124–84
  • Q432.1Jaylon Tyson misses dunk124–84
  • Q453.1Pelle Larsson out of bounds bad pass turnover124–84
  • Q456.1Isaac Okoro personal foul124–84
  • Q41:07Isaac Okoro makes 25-foot three pointer124–84
  • Q41:17Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound121–84

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q111:37Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)CLE 0 – 3 MIA · MIA 36% → 42% +6
  2. Q18:11Kel'el Ware makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)CLE 4 – 12 MIA · MIA 47% → 53% +6
  3. Q16:46Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 6 – 15 MIA · MIA 49% → 56% +7
  4. Q15:36Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 13 – 15 MIA · CLE 53% → 59% +7
  5. Q14:36De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point shot (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 18 – 15 MIA · CLE 63% → 70% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cavaliers 64%

SolidHit
CLE 64%MIA 36%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
CLE -5.5
ML CLE -205 / MIA +170
Pre-line forecast
CLE 74%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -5
CLE 69%
Ratings vs. market
+4.3 pts
CLE: Elo 68.8%, market 64.5%
Fair odds
CLE -181
MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 108.5 – 103.0 MIA
Posted spread, posted total 211.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEMIAWhy
Team rating16661489Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+3+6CLE: Missing Darius Garland −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsCLE +137 EloCLE 68.8%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 74.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 73.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 64.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatMIA
1st of 30121.9Points scored110.624th of 30
12th of 30112.4Points allowed110.07th of 30
2nd of 30+9.5Margin+0.615th of 30
1st of 30119.6Offense rating112.121st of 30
8th of 30110.2Defense rating111.512th of 30
9th of 30101.6Pace97.430th of 30
10th of 306–4Last 106–410th of 30
3rd of 3030–11Road vs home19–2222nd of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

+3 Elo
  • Darius Garland toe injury−22 Elo

Heat

+6 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersHeat
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLEMIA
Against the spread50–3439–45
Last 105–56–4
Favorite44–3121–24
Underdog6–318–21
Overs–unders53–3146–38
Overs–unders, last 105–58–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.