Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Quenton JacksonPoints21
- RayJ DennisAssists6
- Tony BradleyRebounds14
Cavaliers- Jaylon TysonPoints31
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists5
- Tristan ThompsonRebounds20
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game126–118
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime126–118
- 2OT6.1Johnny Furphy makes free throw 2 of 2126–118
- 2OT6.1Johnny Furphy makes free throw 1 of 2125–118
- 2OT6.1Luke Travers personal take foul124–118
- 2OT11.0Emoni Bates makes driving layup124–118
- 2OT19.1Johnny Furphy makes free throw 2 of 2124–116
- 2OT19.1Johnny Furphy makes free throw 1 of 2123–116
- 2OT19.1Craig Porter Jr. personal take foul122–116
- 2OT24.1Jaylon Tyson personal take foul122–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:20RayJ Dennis makes 25-foot three pointerIND 95 – 98 CLE · IND 14% → 32% +18IND 14% → 32%+18 pts
- Q42:21Jaylon Tyson makes 11-foot two point shotIND 97 – 100 CLE · CLE 55% → 73% +17CLE 55% → 73%+17 pts
- Q410.1Johnny Furphy makes 2-foot dunk (RayJ Dennis assists)IND 105 – 105 CLE · IND 4% → 51% +47IND 4% → 51%+47 pts
- OT1:09Jaylon Tyson makes 9-foot two point shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)IND 105 – 109 CLE · CLE 73% → 90% +17CLE 73% → 90%+17 pts
- OT43.1Johnny Furphy makes dunkIND 109 – 109 CLE · IND 21% → 52% +31IND 21% → 52%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -6.5
- ML IND -240 / CLE +200
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- IND 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.3 pts
- IND: Elo 48.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -212
- CLE +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.0 – 110.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1663 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −59 | −165 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 122.01st of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 112.212th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +9.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.48th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 34–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−165 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–46 | 49–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 43–30 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 44–37 | 50–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–3 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.