Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists14
- Aaron NesmithRebounds6
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints41
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–120
- Q44.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2125–120
- Q44.0Pacers offensive team rebound124–120
- Q44.0Tyrese Haliburton misses free throw 1 of 2124–120
- Q44.0Michael Porter Jr. personal take foul124–120
- Q44.1Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound124–120
- Q47.0Nikola Jokic misses 25-foot three point jumper124–120
- Q414.2Nuggets Full timeout124–120
- Q414.2Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 2124–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:32Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 103 – 99 DEN · IND 46% → 59% +13IND 46% → 59%+13 pts
- Q410:14Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)IND 103 – 102 DEN · DEN 41% → 54% +13DEN 41% → 54%+13 pts
- Q45:41Christian Braun makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotIND 116 – 111 DEN · DEN 15% → 28% +13DEN 15% → 28%+13 pts
- Q43:16Christian Braun makes two point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)IND 119 – 117 DEN · DEN 25% → 39% +14DEN 25% → 39%+14 pts
- Q41:15Andrew Nembhard makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 122 – 118 DEN · IND 72% → 89% +17IND 72% → 89%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML IND +200 / DEN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 49.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -212
- IND +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 122.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −9 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +5 Elo | IND 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 25–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–43 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–29 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 42–35 | 45–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 0–3 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.