Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints25
- Nikola JokicAssists19
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists15
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–116
- Q42.1Ben Sheppard offensive rebound125–116
- Q42.1Tyrese Haliburton misses 44-foot three point pullup jump shot125–116
- Q45.0shot clock turnover125–116
- Q428.0Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound125–116
- Q430.1Myles Turner misses 25-foot three point jumper125–116
- Q437.1Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)125–116
- Q41:00Aaron Nesmith makes driving layup (Myles Turner assists)123–116
- Q41:08Ben Sheppard defensive rebound123–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 3 – 2 IND · DEN 55% → 61% +6DEN 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q11:22Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)DEN 28 – 24 IND · IND 27% → 33% +6IND 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q11:05Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 31 – 24 IND · DEN 67% → 73% +6DEN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q253.2Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)DEN 62 – 58 IND · IND 25% → 32% +7IND 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q43:40Ben Sheppard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)DEN 113 – 107 IND · IND 4% → 12% +8IND 4% → 12%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -160 / IND +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 57.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -145
- IND +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 124.5 – 121.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +48 | +1 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +51 Elo | DEN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.3 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 115.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 113.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–28 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–22 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–23 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.