Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints23
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds11
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q423.1GG Jackson makes two point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)113–127
- Q428.1Obi Toppin bad pass (Scotty Pippen Jr. steals)111–127
- Q446.1Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 6-foot dunk111–127
- Q449.2Obi Toppin bad pass (Scotty Pippen Jr. steals)109–127
- Q455.1Thomas Bryant defensive rebound109–127
- Q456.1GG Jackson misses driving layup109–127
- Q41:06Obi Toppin makes 4-foot driving dunk (Jarace Walker assists)109–127
- Q41:23GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2109–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:38Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MEM 46 – 46 IND · IND 41% → 49% +8IND 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q25:55Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 49 – 48 IND · MEM 46% → 53% +8MEM 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q25:43Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MEM 49 – 51 IND · IND 47% → 54% +8IND 47% → 54%+8 pts
- Q24:04Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Pascal Siakam assists)MEM 51 – 60 IND · IND 65% → 72% +7IND 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q32:03Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)MEM 87 – 98 IND · IND 78% → 85% +8IND 78% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -0.5
- ML MEM -115 / IND -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MEM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- MEM: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -104
- IND +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 125.0 – 125.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 250.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +5 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +5 Elo | MEM 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.3 | Points scored | 116.09th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 115.621st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.5 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 113.98th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 113.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 14–810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–19 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–11 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–19 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–1 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.