Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Assists4
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds8
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints24
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Jalen SmithRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q44.0Jalen Smith defensive rebound110–116
- Q46.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot110–116
- Q414.0Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2110–116
- Q414.0Jaren Jackson Jr. enters the game for Xavier Tillman110–115
- Q414.0Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2110–115
- Q414.0Vince Williams Jr. personal take foul110–114
- Q416.0David Roddy personal take foul110–114
- Q418.1Xavier Tillman enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.110–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:28Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MEM 99 – 103 IND · IND 60% → 76% +16IND 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q44:55John Konchar makes 24-foot three point jumper (David Roddy assists)MEM 102 – 103 IND · MEM 23% → 40% +17MEM 23% → 40%+17 pts
- Q43:27Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 12-foot two point shotMEM 106 – 107 IND · MEM 26% → 39% +14MEM 26% → 39%+14 pts
- Q43:10Jalen Smith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MEM 107 – 110 IND · IND 53% → 75% +22IND 53% → 75%+22 pts
- Q41:52Aaron Nesmith makes two point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)MEM 108 – 112 IND · IND 72% → 87% +15IND 72% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 64%
- Fair odds
- IND -156
- MEM +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 115.2 – 118.5 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −13 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −8 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +99 Elo | IND 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 124.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 123.128th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 118.93rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 117.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 105.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 15–915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−26 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−3 Elo
Pacers
−13 Elo- T.J. McConnell personal−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.