Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Buddy HieldPoints18
- Pascal SiakamAssists7
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints40
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–117
- Q41.1Kevin Durant defensive rebound110–117
- Q44.1Aaron Nesmith misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–117
- Q49.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2110–117
- Q49.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2110–116
- Q49.1Andrew Nembhard personal take foul110–115
- Q410.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Pascal Siakam110–115
- Q410.1Pascal Siakam personal take foul110–115
- Q426.0Andrew Nembhard lost ball turnover (Devin Booker steals)110–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:20Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 105 – 103 PHX · IND 38% → 62% +23IND 38% → 62%+23 pts
- Q42:59Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)IND 105 – 106 PHX · PHX 37% → 62% +25PHX 37% → 62%+25 pts
- Q42:11Bradley Beal makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotIND 107 – 109 PHX · PHX 53% → 72% +18PHX 53% → 72%+18 pts
- Q41:46Bradley Beal makes driving layupIND 107 – 111 PHX · PHX 73% → 88% +15PHX 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q41:18Grayson Allen makes 7-foot two point shot (Bradley Beal assists)IND 108 – 113 PHX · PHX 84% → 95% +11PHX 84% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4
- PHX 65%
- Fair odds
- PHX -183
- IND +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.4 – 124.0 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +71 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +108 Elo | PHX 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.0 | Points scored | 116.113th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.3 | Points allowed | 114.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 115.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 99.725th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 12–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.