Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Buddy HieldPoints14
- T.J. McConnellAssists5
- Jalen SmithRebounds6
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints32
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–132
- Q45.1shot clock turnover105–132
- Q428.1Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound105–132
- Q431.1Jordan Nwora misses running pullup jump shot105–132
- Q436.2Jordan Nwora defensive rebound105–132
- Q440.1Keyonte George misses 32-foot three point jumper105–132
- Q446.0Jordan Nwora makes driving layup (Ben Sheppard assists)105–132
- Q453.0Keyonte George makes 24-foot step back jumpshot103–132
- Q41:03Kendall Brown makes free throw 2 of 2103–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:52Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)IND 2 – 9 UTAH · UTAH 74% → 79% +5UTAH 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q16:53Buddy Hield makes 22-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 14 – 18 UTAH · IND 21% → 26% +5IND 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q15:25Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 19 – 23 UTAH · IND 21% → 26% +5IND 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q15:09Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)IND 20 – 26 UTAH · UTAH 72% → 77% +5UTAH 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q29:50Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Nwora assists)IND 35 – 39 UTAH · IND 21% → 27% +6IND 21% → 27%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -4.5
- UTAH 68%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -206
- IND +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.9 – 126.4 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +64 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +128 Elo | UTAH 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.7 | Points scored | 116.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 118.523rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | −2.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.2 | Pace | 101.910th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 14–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.