Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints27
- Jordan ClarksonAssists9
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–124
- Q414.2Collin Gillespie makes free throw 2 of 2111–124
- Q414.2Collin Gillespie makes free throw 1 of 2110–124
- Q414.2Kris Dunn shooting foul109–124
- Q419.1Collin Gillespie defensive rebound109–124
- Q422.0Taylor Hendricks misses 25-foot three point jumper109–124
- Q433.1Collin Gillespie makes 19-foot pullup jump shot109–124
- Q438.1Kris Dunn out of bounds bad pass turnover107–124
- Q41:00Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound107–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:41John Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DEN 6 – 13 UTAH · UTAH 52% → 59% +6UTAH 52% → 59%+6 pts
- Q17:22Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 9 – 13 UTAH · DEN 41% → 48% +6DEN 41% → 48%+6 pts
- Q17:12John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)DEN 9 – 16 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 59% +6UTAH 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q24:42Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 44 – 50 UTAH · DEN 32% → 39% +7DEN 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q23:45Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)DEN 46 – 55 UTAH · UTAH 61% → 69% +8UTAH 61% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 57%
- Fair odds
- DEN -130
- UTAH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.3 – 115.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +123 | +45 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +46 Elo | DEN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 115.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 118.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.4 | Margin | −3.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 111.920th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 11–510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+123 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.