Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints20
- Jaden IveyAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds5
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints37
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- DeAndre JordanRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–131
- Q416.1Braxton Key defensive rebound114–131
- Q420.1Isaiah Livers misses 24-foot three point jumper114–131
- Q430.1Collin Gillespie turnover114–131
- Q430.1Collin Gillespie offensive foul114–131
- Q444.1Nuggets defensive team rebound114–131
- Q445.1Ausar Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2114–131
- Q445.1Ausar Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2114–131
- Q445.1Jay Huff shooting foul113–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:34Alec Burks makes 25-foot three pointerDET 20 – 19 DEN · DET 13% → 18% +4DET 13% → 18%+4 pts
- Q29:21Bojan Bogdanovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 37 – 35 DEN · DET 17% → 22% +5DET 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q24:19Alec Burks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)DET 50 – 49 DEN · DET 17% → 22% +6DET 17% → 22%+6 pts
- Q23:00Alec Burks makes 28-foot three pointerDET 54 – 53 DEN · DET 17% → 23% +6DET 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q21:20Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)DET 57 – 61 DEN · DET 10% → 14% +4DET 10% → 14%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -14
- DEN 91%
- Fair odds
- DEN -625
- DET +625 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.8 – 123.7 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +121 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +398 Elo | DEN 90.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 85.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 86.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 115.713th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 110.64th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.9 | Margin | +5.16th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 116.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.7 | Pace | 98.929th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–18 | Road vs home | 14–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+121 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.