Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Reggie JacksonPoints21
- Aaron GordonAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Isaiah StewartRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–103
- Q43.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound107–103
- Q45.1Peyton Watson blocks Isaiah Livers 's 32-foot three point jumper107–103
- Q411.0Peyton Watson enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.107–103
- Q411.0Stanley Umude enters the game for Jaden Ivey107–103
- Q411.0Alec Burks enters the game for Ausar Thompson107–103
- Q411.0Pistons Full timeout107–103
- Q411.0Reggie Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2107–103
- Q411.0Nuggets offensive team rebound106–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:57Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point shot (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 92 – 91 DET · DEN 49% → 65% +16DEN 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q42:29Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes tip shotDEN 101 – 101 DET · DEN 38% → 56% +18DEN 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q42:05Reggie Jackson makes two point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 103 – 101 DET · DEN 55% → 74% +18DEN 55% → 74%+18 pts
- Q41:41Cade Cunningham makes layupDEN 103 – 103 DET · DET 25% → 45% +20DET 25% → 45%+20 pts
- Q41:25Aaron Gordon makes alley oop layup (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 105 – 103 DET · DEN 54% → 76% +22DEN 54% → 76%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Fair odds
- DEN -284
- DET +284 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.0 – 109.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +139 | −32 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +209 Elo | DEN 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 110.024th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 116.622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 107.825th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.912th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+139 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−32 Elo- Jalen Duren right ankle injury−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.