Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints36
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds21
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–107
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound104–107
- Q40.0Nikola Jokic misses 52-foot three point jumper104–107
- Q43.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound104–107
- Q43.1Dillon Brooks misses free throw 2 of 2104–107
- Q43.1Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2104–107
- Q43.1Michael Porter Jr. personal take foul104–106
- Q44.0Reggie Jackson makes driving dunk104–106
- Q49.0Jeff Green makes free throw 2 of 2102–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:21Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)DEN 76 – 79 HOU · HOU 43% → 55% +13HOU 43% → 55%+13 pts
- Q49:24Tari Eason makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)DEN 80 – 84 HOU · HOU 48% → 62% +14HOU 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q48:08Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumperDEN 82 – 89 HOU · HOU 64% → 77% +13HOU 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q419.1Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 102 – 103 HOU · DEN <1% → 27% +27DEN <1% → 27%+27 pts
- Q414.0Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 102 – 104 HOU · HOU 76% → 93% +16HOU 76% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 64%
- Fair odds
- DEN -184
- HOU +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.9 – 109.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +179 | +35 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +100 Elo | DEN 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 111.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 106.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+10.0 | Margin | +5.57th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 112.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 106.55th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+179 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.