Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keon EllisPoints15
- Domantas SabonisAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds8
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints23
- Alperen SengunAssists12
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–122
- Q45.1Jermaine Samuels Jr. defensive rebound97–122
- Q48.1Boban Marjanovic blocks Alex Len 's 26-foot three point jumper97–122
- Q424.1shot clock turnover97–122
- Q448.1Colby Jones makes 4-foot two point shot97–122
- Q41:07Cam Whitmore makes driving layup95–122
- Q41:19Jordan Ford makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot95–120
- Q41:27Alex Len defensive rebound93–120
- Q41:28Nate Hinton misses 18-foot pullup jump shot93–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:56Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)SAC 5 – 5 HOU · SAC 41% → 47% +6SAC 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q19:05Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 8 – 7 HOU · SAC 43% → 50% +6SAC 43% → 50%+6 pts
- Q18:26Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)SAC 8 – 10 HOU · HOU 50% → 57% +6HOU 50% → 57%+6 pts
- Q17:37Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three pointer (Harrison Barnes assists)SAC 11 – 13 HOU · SAC 37% → 43% +6SAC 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q13:48Jae'Sean Tate makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)SAC 15 – 19 HOU · HOU 55% → 61% +7HOU 55% → 61%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- SAC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.4 – 113.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −10 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 107.624th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 111.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −3.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 106.422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 110.017th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.