Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints14
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Cole AnthonyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–116
- Q47.0shot clock turnover86–116
- Q429.1Goga Bitadze defensive rebound86–116
- Q432.0Nate Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper86–116
- Q438.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound86–116
- Q443.0Chuma Okeke misses running pullup jump shot86–116
- Q447.1Chuma Okeke defensive rebound86–116
- Q450.1Amen Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper86–116
- Q453.0Amen Thompson offensive rebound86–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q127.1Gary Harris makes layup (Joe Ingles assists)HOU 18 – 29 ORL · ORL 72% → 79% +8ORL 72% → 79%+8 pts
- Q211:37Alperen Sengun makes two point shotHOU 22 – 29 ORL · HOU 21% → 28% +8HOU 21% → 28%+8 pts
- Q37:50Fred VanVleet makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotHOU 59 – 63 ORL · HOU 25% → 33% +8HOU 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q37:16Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 62 – 63 ORL · HOU 33% → 42% +9HOU 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q32:15Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jock Landale assists)HOU 69 – 75 ORL · HOU 17% → 25% +8HOU 17% → 25%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 57%
- Fair odds
- ORL -132
- HOU +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.6 – 114.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +48 Elo | ORL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.