Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints25
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints25
- Zach CollinsAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–126
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–126
- OT0.0Rockets offensive team rebound122–126
- OT0.0Fred VanVleet misses 49-foot three point pullup jump shot122–126
- OT1.0Keldon Johnson makes driving dunk (Jeremy Sochan assists)122–126
- OT9.0Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shot122–124
- OT14.1Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2120–124
- OT14.1Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 1 of 2120–123
- OT14.1Jeff Green enters the game for Alperen Sengun120–122
- OT14.1Alperen Sengun personal take foul120–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:41Dillon Brooks makes 2-foot two point shot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 107 – 104 SA · HOU 55% → 72% +16HOU 55% → 72%+16 pts
- Q41:48Alperen Sengun makes layupHOU 109 – 106 SA · HOU 58% → 77% +19HOU 58% → 77%+19 pts
- Q444.0Dillon Brooks makes 2-foot two point shot (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 111 – 108 SA · HOU 65% → 89% +24HOU 65% → 89%+24 pts
- Q420.0Victor Wembanyama makes driving layup (Keldon Johnson assists)HOU 111 – 111 SA · SA 11% → 51% +40SA 11% → 51%+40 pts
- OT1:32Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 118 – 120 SA · HOU 6% → 26% +20HOU 6% → 26%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4
- SA 65%
- Fair odds
- SA -174
- HOU +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.3 – 115.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | −12 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +106 Elo | SA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3086.0 | Points scored | 119.06th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 126.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−30.0 | Margin | −7.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 3089.4 | Offense rating | 109.813th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.5 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 29th of 3096.2 | Pace | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 180–1 | Road vs home | 0–111th of 19 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Rockets: last 1