Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds13
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints23
- Keldon JohnsonAssists7
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–119
- Q413.1Kyrie Irving defensive rebound126–119
- Q417.1Grant Williams blocks Devin Vassell 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot126–119
- Q428.2Spurs Full timeout126–119
- Q430.0Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshot126–119
- Q442.1Dereck Lively II offensive rebound123–119
- Q445.0Kyrie Irving misses 25-foot step back jumpshot123–119
- Q41:03Keldon Johnson lost ball turnover (Dereck Lively II steals)123–119
- Q41:24Kyrie Irving makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)123–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:29Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)DAL 112 – 111 SA · SA 28% → 46% +17SA 28% → 46%+17 pts
- Q44:12Grant Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 115 – 113 SA · DAL 42% → 62% +21DAL 42% → 62%+21 pts
- Q42:19Luka Doncic makes 3-foot two point shotDAL 117 – 117 SA · DAL 31% → 49% +18DAL 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q41:51Kyrie Irving makes three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 121 – 119 SA · DAL 39% → 69% +31DAL 39% → 69%+31 pts
- Q41:24Kyrie Irving makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 123 – 119 SA · DAL 72% → 88% +16DAL 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 55%
- Fair odds
- SA -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.9 – 114.4 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | SA +36 Elo | SA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.