Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- P.J. WashingtonPoints23
- Terry RozierAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds8
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints23
- Fred VanVleetAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–128
- Q49.0Terry Rozier makes driving layup119–128
- Q415.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2117–128
- Q415.1Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2117–127
- Q415.1LaMelo Ball personal foul117–126
- Q421.1LaMelo Ball makes driving layup117–126
- Q431.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2115–126
- Q431.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Alperen Sengun115–125
- Q431.1Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2115–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q256.0Fred VanVleet makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)CHA 56 – 61 HOU · HOU 51% → 59% +9HOU 51% → 59%+9 pts
- Q311:02Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)CHA 60 – 64 HOU · HOU 48% → 57% +9HOU 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:04Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)CHA 63 – 71 HOU · HOU 61% → 70% +9HOU 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q38:30Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)CHA 65 – 74 HOU · HOU 64% → 73% +8HOU 64% → 73%+8 pts
- Q42:41Brandon Miller makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gordon Hayward assists)CHA 110 – 115 HOU · CHA 4% → 14% +10CHA 4% → 14%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- CHA 57%
- Fair odds
- CHA -131
- HOU +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.2 – 112.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −66 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +51 Elo | CHA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 101.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 116.020th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−6.0 | Margin | −15.030th of 30 |
| 20th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 98.830th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 113.526th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Pace | 98.630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.