Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints33
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Ben SimmonsRebounds10
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints23
- Terry RozierAssists9
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–121
- Q40.1shot clock turnover133–121
- Q424.1shot clock turnover133–121
- Q434.0Mikal Bridges offensive rebound133–121
- Q439.2Lonnie Walker IV misses free throw 2 of 2133–121
- Q439.2Lonnie Walker IV makes free throw 1 of 2133–121
- Q439.2Gordon Hayward personal foul132–121
- Q447.1Theo Maledon makes free throw 2 of 2132–121
- Q447.1Theo Maledon makes free throw 1 of 2132–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:08Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 9 – 2 CHA · BKN 48% → 55% +6BKN 48% → 55%+6 pts
- Q21:04Terry Rozier makes step back jumpshotBKN 62 – 55 CHA · CHA 30% → 37% +8CHA 30% → 37%+8 pts
- Q38:01Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 76 – 66 CHA · BKN 66% → 74% +8BKN 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q37:33Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lonnie Walker IV assists)BKN 79 – 68 CHA · BKN 69% → 77% +8BKN 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q35:46Gordon Hayward makes 28-foot three point shot (Terry Rozier assists)BKN 83 – 75 CHA · CHA 22% → 30% +8CHA 22% → 30%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2.5
- CHA 59%
- Fair odds
- CHA -151
- BKN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.0 – 115.1 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +6 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +65 Elo | CHA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 107.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 110.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −3.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 99.627th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 102.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.6 | Pace | 108.02nd of 30 |
| 16th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Nets: last 2