Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints30
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Royce O'NealeRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints49
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–125
- Q40.1Luka Doncic defensive rebound120–125
- Q42.2Mikal Bridges misses 25-foot three point jumper120–125
- Q44.1Dereck Lively II enters the game for Maxi Kleber120–125
- Q44.1(00:04.7) [Mavericks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Mavericks] charged with a timeout120–125
- Q44.1Mavericks Full timeout120–125
- Q44.1Nets offensive team rebound120–125
- Q47.0Spencer Dinwiddie misses three point shot120–125
- Q412.1Josh Green makes free throw 2 of 2120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:31Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 112 – 108 DAL · BKN 56% → 76% +21BKN 56% → 76%+21 pts
- Q42:09Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)BKN 118 – 116 DAL · DAL 12% → 33% +21DAL 12% → 33%+21 pts
- Q41:26Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBKN 118 – 119 DAL · DAL 28% → 63% +35DAL 28% → 63%+35 pts
- Q450.1Cam Thomas makes 22-foot step back jumpshotBKN 120 – 120 DAL · BKN 21% → 49% +28BKN 21% → 49%+28 pts
- Q426.1Luka Doncic makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Maxi Kleber assists)BKN 120 – 123 DAL · DAL 51% → 95% +44DAL 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -135
- BKN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.8 – 115.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −8 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +55 Elo | DAL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 126.03rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 119.023rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +7.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.25th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 109.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.4 | Pace | 108.04th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Nets: last 1