Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints27
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Max StrusRebounds12
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints36
- Ben SimmonsAssists9
- Ben SimmonsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.0Cameron Johnson misses 4-foot tip shot114–113
- Q41.1Cameron Johnson offensive rebound114–113
- Q41.1Cam Thomas misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot114–113
- Q412.0Isaac Okoro enters the game for Darius Garland114–113
- Q412.0Cam Thomas enters the game for Nic Claxton114–113
- Q412.0Nets Full timeout114–113
- Q412.1Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointer114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:21Donovan Mitchell makes two point shotCLE 105 – 105 BKN · CLE 31% → 49% +18CLE 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q41:58Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three pointer (Mikal Bridges assists)CLE 105 – 108 BKN · BKN 51% → 79% +28BKN 51% → 79%+28 pts
- Q441.1Donovan Mitchell makes 3-foot dunkCLE 111 – 111 BKN · CLE 19% → 49% +31CLE 19% → 49%+31 pts
- Q419.0Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 111 – 112 BKN · BKN 50% → 74% +24BKN 50% → 74%+24 pts
- Q412.1Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 114 – 113 BKN · CLE 5% → 79% +73CLE 5% → 79%+73 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- BKN 55%
- Fair odds
- BKN -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.9 – 114.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | BKN +36 Elo | BKN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.