Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints23
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds13
Hornets- P.J. WashingtonPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists10
- Mark WilliamsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q42.1Mark Williams defensive rebound110–116
- Q42.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 35-foot three point pullup jump shot110–116
- Q46.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2110–116
- Q46.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2110–115
- Q46.1Bogdan Bogdanovic personal take foul110–114
- Q46.1Terry Rozier defensive rebound110–114
- Q48.1Trae Young misses 32-foot step back jumpshot110–114
- Q413.1Trae Young enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu110–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:39Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 94 – 90 CHA · ATL 54% → 70% +16ATL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q46:10Brandon Miller makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Gordon Hayward assists)ATL 94 – 93 CHA · CHA 30% → 46% +16CHA 30% → 46%+16 pts
- Q44:53P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)ATL 97 – 98 CHA · CHA 39% → 58% +19CHA 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q44:19Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)ATL 99 – 101 CHA · CHA 45% → 65% +20CHA 45% → 65%+20 pts
- Q42:06Terry Rozier makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)ATL 103 – 107 CHA · CHA 70% → 85% +15CHA 70% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1.5
- CHA 55%
- Fair odds
- CHA -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.9 – 114.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | CHA +36 Elo | CHA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.