Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Alec BurksPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints20
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- LaMelo BallRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q422.0Isaiah Stewart makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2111–99
- Q422.0Pistons offensive team rebound110–99
- Q422.0Isaiah Stewart misses free throw flagrant 1 of 2110–99
- Q422.0JT Thor enters the game for P.J. Washington110–99
- Q422.0P.J. Washington ejected110–99
- Q422.0(00:22.1) [Pistons] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)110–99
- Q422.0P.J. Washington flagrant foul type 2110–99
- Q439.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2110–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:24Gordon Hayward makes 26-foot three point shot (Brandon Miller assists)DET 71 – 69 CHA · CHA 39% → 49% +11CHA 39% → 49%+11 pts
- Q410:41Brandon Miller makes 28-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)DET 85 – 79 CHA · CHA 20% → 30% +10CHA 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q47:32Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 92 – 85 CHA · DET 66% → 79% +13DET 66% → 79%+13 pts
- Q45:51Isaiah Stewart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 97 – 91 CHA · DET 63% → 79% +15DET 63% → 79%+15 pts
- Q43:54Isaiah Stewart makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 99 – 93 CHA · DET 74% → 84% +10DET 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3
- CHA 62%
- Fair odds
- CHA -162
- DET +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.3 – 115.0 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +27 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +85 Elo | CHA 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30102.0 | Points scored | 116.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.0 | Points allowed | 110.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +6.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 109.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 103.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 3095.6 | Pace | 106.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 16 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Pistons: last 1