Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists4
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–103
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound102–103
- Q40.1Cade Cunningham misses 31-foot three point jumper102–103
- Q42.1Joe Harris enters the game for Isaiah Stewart102–103
- Q42.1Caleb Martin enters the game for Kevin Love102–103
- Q42.1Pistons Full timeout102–103
- Q42.1Pistons Full timeout102–103
- Q42.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound102–103
- Q46.1Kevin Love misses 27-foot three point jumper102–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q345.1Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot three pointerDET 75 – 81 MIA · DET 16% → 25% +9DET 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q44:25Killian Hayes makes 13-foot two point shotDET 93 – 97 MIA · DET 14% → 23% +9DET 14% → 23%+9 pts
- Q43:59Kevin Love makes layup (Jimmy Butler assists)DET 93 – 99 MIA · MIA 78% → 87% +9MIA 78% → 87%+9 pts
- Q42:01Jalen Duren makes dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 99 – 103 MIA · DET 6% → 15% +9DET 6% → 15%+9 pts
- Q41:44Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point shot (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 102 – 103 MIA · DET 13% → 38% +25DET 13% → 38%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 55%
- Fair odds
- MIA -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.9 – 114.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | MIA +36 Elo | MIA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.