Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints21
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Jalen GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–95
- Q411.1Stephen Curry defensive rebound106–95
- Q412.0Jalen Green misses 26-foot three point jumper106–95
- Q420.0Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2106–95
- Q420.0Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2105–95
- Q420.0Jalen Green personal foul104–95
- Q426.2Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)104–95
- Q440.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2104–93
- Q440.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2103–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q356.1Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dario Saric assists)GS 79 – 73 HOU · GS 60% → 71% +11GS 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q45:17Draymond Green makes layup (Kevon Looney assists)GS 88 – 87 HOU · GS 43% → 55% +12GS 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q45:09Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)GS 91 – 87 HOU · GS 55% → 73% +18GS 55% → 73%+18 pts
- Q44:31Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 94 – 89 HOU · GS 62% → 79% +17GS 62% → 79%+17 pts
- Q43:55Stephen Curry makes 26-foot step back jumpshotGS 97 – 89 HOU · GS 81% → 92% +11GS 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 51%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- GS +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.8 – 113.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −69 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 104.023rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 121.026th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −17.030th of 30 |
| 19th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 98.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 30104.0 | Defense rating | 115.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.7 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−69 Elo- Tari Eason left lower leg strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Warriors: last 2