Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–104
- Q42.2Josh Okogie defensive rebound108–104
- Q44.0Klay Thompson misses 27-foot three point jumper108–104
- Q48.0Kevon Looney offensive rebound108–104
- Q48.0Chris Paul misses 24-foot three point jumper108–104
- Q410.1Grayson Allen enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic108–104
- Q410.1Stephen Curry enters the game for Gary Payton II108–104
- Q410.1Moses Moody enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga108–104
- Q410.1Warriors Full timeout108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:22Devin Booker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)PHX 100 – 96 GS · PHX 55% → 74% +19PHX 55% → 74%+19 pts
- Q42:57Chris Paul makes 19-foot pullup jump shotPHX 100 – 99 GS · GS 27% → 43% +15GS 27% → 43%+15 pts
- Q41:09Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 103 – 99 GS · PHX 62% → 91% +28PHX 62% → 91%+28 pts
- Q444.1Eric Gordon makes 29-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 106 – 101 GS · PHX 80% → 98% +19PHX 80% → 98%+19 pts
- Q431.1Stephen Curry makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)PHX 106 – 104 GS · GS <1% → 16% +16GS <1% → 16%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 55%
- Fair odds
- GS -123
- PHX +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.9 – 114.5 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | GS +36 Elo | GS 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.