Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints41
- Chris PaulAssists12
- Kevon LooneyRebounds12
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints39
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–114
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound122–114
- Q40.0De'Aaron Fox misses driving floating jump shot122–114
- Q41.1Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound122–114
- Q45.0Keegan Murray misses 27-foot three point shot122–114
- Q412.1Chris Paul bad pass (Keegan Murray steals)122–114
- Q414.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Kevon Looney122–114
- Q414.1Warriors Full timeout122–114
- Q418.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2122–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:30Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointerGS 65 – 62 SAC · GS 39% → 48% +9GS 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q38:58Keegan Murray makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)GS 65 – 65 SAC · SAC 52% → 61% +9SAC 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q38:36Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)GS 68 – 65 SAC · GS 39% → 48% +9GS 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q37:26Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three pointer (Chris Paul assists)GS 71 – 67 SAC · GS 42% → 52% +10GS 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q35:24Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)GS 80 – 70 SAC · GS 63% → 73% +9GS 63% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 68%
- Fair odds
- SAC -201
- GS +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 111.0 – 116.3 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | +11 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +132 Elo | SAC 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30104.0 | Points scored | 130.02nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 114.017th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.0 | Margin | +16.03rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.7 | Offense rating | 124.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.5 | Defense rating | 108.917th of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.4 | Pace | 105.29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Warriors: last 1