Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Harrison BarnesPoints33
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints24
- Jordan ClarksonAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–114
- Q423.1Simone Fontecchio makes two point shot130–114
- Q423.1Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound130–112
- Q426.1Luka Samanic misses 24-foot three point jumper130–112
- Q428.0Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound130–112
- Q430.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 11-foot two point shot130–111
- Q440.1Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound130–111
- Q445.1Kessler Edwards misses 29-foot three point jumper130–112
- Q447.1Colby Jones defensive rebound130–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:15Chris Duarte makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 40 – 30 UTAH · SAC 61% → 68% +7SAC 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q29:36Chris Duarte makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 43 – 32 UTAH · SAC 64% → 71% +7SAC 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q29:18Keyonte George makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 43 – 35 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 36% +7UTAH 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q29:02Malik Monk makes three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 46 – 35 UTAH · SAC 64% → 71% +7SAC 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q39:54De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 77 – 65 UTAH · SAC 72% → 79% +7SAC 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 57%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -132
- SAC +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.6 – 114.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +48 Elo | UTAH 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.