Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints21
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Kevon LooneyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–102
- Q40.0Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Klay Thompson101–102
- Q40.0Andrew Wiggins enters the game for Stephen Curry101–102
- Q40.0Warriors Full timeout101–102
- Q40.0JaVale McGee enters the game for Davion Mitchell101–102
- Q40.0Kevon Looney enters the game for Chris Paul101–102
- Q40.0Kings Full timeout101–102
- Q41.1Klay Thompson makes pullup jump shot (Draymond Green assists)101–102
- Q415.1Domantas Sabonis makes 21-foot jump bank shot (Malik Monk assists)101–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:02Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)SAC 89 – 90 GS · GS 37% → 58% +21GS 37% → 58%+21 pts
- Q41:02Gary Payton II makes driving floating jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)SAC 99 – 98 GS · GS 15% → 37% +22GS 15% → 37%+22 pts
- Q433.0Stephen Curry makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 99 – 100 GS · GS 32% → 69% +37GS 32% → 69%+37 pts
- Q415.1Domantas Sabonis makes 21-foot jump bank shot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 101 – 100 GS · SAC 23% → 76% +53SAC 23% → 76%+53 pts
- Q41.1Klay Thompson makes pullup jump shot (Draymond Green assists)SAC 101 – 102 GS · GS <1% → >99% +99GS <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 58%
- Fair odds
- GS -120
- SAC +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.6 – 114.9 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −4 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +59 Elo | GS 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30125.3 | Points scored | 115.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 104.87th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +10.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 112.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 102.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.6 | Pace | 102.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.