Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints42
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Dario SaricRebounds10
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints19
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- CJ McCollumRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–102
- Q47.1Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound130–102
- Q47.1Kaiser Gates misses layup130–102
- Q414.1Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup130–102
- Q426.1Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound128–102
- Q429.0Cory Joseph misses 25-foot three point jumper128–102
- Q439.1Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound128–102
- Q443.0Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot128–102
- Q450.1Pelicans defensive team rebound128–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q258.1CJ McCollum makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)GS 57 – 52 NO · NO 39% → 48% +9NO 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q235.0Jordan Hawkins makes 24-foot three point shot (CJ McCollum assists)GS 59 – 55 NO · NO 42% → 50% +9NO 42% → 50%+9 pts
- Q310:35Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 66 – 59 NO · GS 51% → 60% +9GS 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q39:36Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 69 – 61 NO · GS 54% → 63% +9GS 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q38:51Stephen Curry makes 26-foot step back jumpshotGS 72 – 61 NO · GS 64% → 72% +8GS 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4
- NO 66%
- Fair odds
- NO -197
- GS +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 109.2 – 114.4 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | +12 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Brandon Ingram −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +113 Elo | NO 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 103.526th of 30 |
| 9th of 30105.7 | Points allowed | 95.52nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +8.08th of 30 |
| 15th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 100.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.4 | Defense rating | 92.61st of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.3 | Pace | 102.911th of 30 |
| 1st of 282–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+12 Elo- Brandon Ingram knee soreness−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.