New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- RJ BarrettPoints18
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds15
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints26
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Brandon IngramRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–96
- Q410.1DaQuan Jeffries makes driving layup (Miles McBride assists)87–96
- Q415.1Miles McBride defensive rebound85–96
- Q419.0Matt Ryan misses 26-foot three point jumper85–96
- Q425.1Miles McBride makes two point shot85–96
- Q426.1Jordan Hawkins bad pass (Miles McBride steals)83–96
- Q429.1Dylan Windler makes 28-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)83–96
- Q444.0Jericho Sims defensive rebound80–96
- Q444.0E.J. Liddell misses 28-foot three point jumper80–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:56CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer (Zion Williamson assists)NY 2 – 5 NO · NO 69% → 74% +5NO 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q36:55Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 56 – 63 NO · NY 13% → 19% +6NY 13% → 19%+6 pts
- Q356.1Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)NY 66 – 72 NO · NY 12% → 19% +7NY 12% → 19%+7 pts
- Q310.1Immanuel Quickley makes 8-foot two point shotNY 68 – 74 NO · NY 14% → 19% +5NY 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q32.1Brandon Ingram makes 20-foot two point shotNY 68 – 76 NO · NO 81% → 86% +5NO 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5
- NO 69%
- Fair odds
- NO -224
- NY +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.4 – 116.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −57 | +3 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +142 Elo | NO 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 111.017th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 104.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +7.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 106.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 99.36th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Knicks: last 2