New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Julius RandleAssists9
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds13
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Clint CapelaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–120
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound126–120
- Q40.0Jalen Johnson misses three point pullup jump shot126–120
- Q42.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound126–120
- Q44.1Julius Randle misses free throw 2 of 2126–120
- Q44.1Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2126–120
- Q44.1Jalen Johnson personal take foul125–120
- Q45.1Julius Randle offensive rebound125–120
- Q47.0Julius Randle misses free throw 2 of 2125–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:17Julius Randle makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotNY 114 – 110 ATL · NY 62% → 76% +14NY 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q43:00Trae Young makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotNY 114 – 112 ATL · ATL 23% → 37% +14ATL 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q42:43Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotNY 116 – 112 ATL · NY 64% → 79% +15NY 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q42:37De'Andre Hunter makes dunk (Trae Young assists)NY 116 – 114 ATL · ATL 21% → 36% +15ATL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q42:16RJ Barrett makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 118 – 114 ATL · NY 66% → 81% +15NY 66% → 81%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- NY +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.1 – 115.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | −5 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +99 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30104.0 | Points scored | 110.017th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 116.020th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.0 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 103.820th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 109.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 3097.8 | Pace | 106.06th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Knicks: last 1