Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints34
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Knicks- Immanuel QuickleyPoints24
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–104
- Q40.1Knicks offensive team rebound108–104
- Q40.1Jalen Brunson misses 26-foot three point jumper108–104
- Q41.1Immanuel Quickley offensive rebound108–104
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson misses 27-foot three point shot108–104
- Q410.1Jaylen Brown enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis108–104
- Q410.1Al Horford enters the game for Payton Pritchard108–104
- Q410.1Josh Hart enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein108–104
- Q410.1Knicks Full timeout108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:48Kristaps Porzingis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 91 – 90 NY · BOS 37% → 54% +18BOS 37% → 54%+18 pts
- Q45:28Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBOS 91 – 93 NY · NY 46% → 64% +18NY 46% → 64%+18 pts
- Q44:36Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 93 – 96 NY · NY 52% → 71% +19NY 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q44:10Quentin Grimes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)BOS 93 – 99 NY · NY 72% → 86% +15NY 72% → 86%+15 pts
- Q41:29Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 104 – 101 NY · BOS 49% → 81% +32BOS 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 55%
- Fair odds
- NY -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.9 – 114.5 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | NY +36 Elo | NY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.