Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- D'Angelo RussellAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints37
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game127–132
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime127–132
- OT15.0Sasha Vezenkov enters the game for Davion Mitchell127–132
- OT15.0LeBron James out of bounds bad pass turnover127–132
- OT15.0Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2127–132
- OT15.0Davion Mitchell enters the game for Sasha Vezenkov127–131
- OT15.0Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2127–131
- OT15.0Gabe Vincent personal foul127–130
- OT16.1Sasha Vezenkov enters the game for Davion Mitchell127–130
- OT16.1LeBron James personal foul127–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q428.0Anthony Davis makes dunkLAL 113 – 113 SAC · LAL 13% → 48% +34LAL 13% → 48%+34 pts
- Q425.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2LAL 113 – 114 SAC · SAC 52% → 73% +21SAC 52% → 73%+21 pts
- Q412.2LeBron James makes driving layupLAL 115 – 115 SAC · LAL 5% → 48% +43LAL 5% → 48%+43 pts
- OT2:34LeBron James makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 123 – 124 SAC · LAL 15% → 36% +21LAL 15% → 36%+21 pts
- OT1:36Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)LAL 123 – 127 SAC · SAC 65% → 89% +24SAC 65% → 89%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6.5
- SAC 73%
- Fair odds
- SAC -268
- LAL +268 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 109.7 – 117.2 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −128 | +10 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +176 Elo | SAC 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30103.5 | Points scored | 122.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 118.024th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.5 | Margin | +4.013th of 30 |
| 21st of 30103.3 | Offense rating | 114.77th of 30 |
| 12th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 111.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.7 | Pace | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 270–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−128 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Lakers: last 2