Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints39
- Grayson AllenAssists4
- Kevin DurantRebounds11
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–100
- Q41.2Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 295–100
- Q41.2Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 295–99
- Q41.2Eric Gordon personal take foul95–98
- Q42.1Kevin Durant makes driving dunk95–98
- Q47.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 293–98
- Q47.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 293–97
- Q47.0Jordan Goodwin personal take foul93–96
- Q48.1Jordan Goodwin makes driving layup93–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:43LeBron James makes driving layupPHX 87 – 89 LAL · LAL 46% → 61% +15LAL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q41:55Kevin Durant makes 14-foot pullup jump shotPHX 89 – 91 LAL · PHX 17% → 33% +16PHX 17% → 33%+16 pts
- Q41:30Kevin Durant makes two point shotPHX 91 – 91 LAL · PHX 30% → 53% +23PHX 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q41:11LeBron James makes driving layupPHX 91 – 93 LAL · LAL 48% → 73% +25LAL 48% → 73%+25 pts
- Q441.0LeBron James makes driving layupPHX 91 – 95 LAL · LAL 80% → 96% +16LAL 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4
- PHX 65%
- Fair odds
- PHX -179
- LAL +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.5 – 111.1 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −113 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +107 Elo | PHX 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 107.021st of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 119.023rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −12.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 30102.5 | Offense rating | 109.714th of 30 |
| 4th of 3098.7 | Defense rating | 122.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 30105.0 | Pace | 97.923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Suns: last 1