Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints18
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–107
- Q415.1Jeff Green defensive rebound89–107
- Q417.0Keon Ellis misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot89–107
- Q430.1Colby Jones defensive rebound89–107
- Q432.1Jermaine Samuels Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper89–107
- Q447.1Jordan Ford makes free throw 2 of 289–107
- Q447.1Jordan Ford makes free throw 1 of 288–107
- Q447.1Jermaine Samuels Jr. personal foul87–107
- Q448.1Cam Whitmore lost ball turnover (Keon Ellis steals)87–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:00Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 65 – 64 HOU · SAC 44% → 54% +10SAC 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q32.0Malik Monk makes 28-foot step back jumpshotSAC 68 – 71 HOU · SAC 27% → 38% +11SAC 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q411:05Jae'Sean Tate makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)SAC 68 – 74 HOU · HOU 62% → 74% +12HOU 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q49:34Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)SAC 72 – 77 HOU · HOU 59% → 72% +13HOU 59% → 72%+13 pts
- Q48:25Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 77 – 80 HOU · SAC 23% → 36% +13SAC 23% → 36%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 54%
- Fair odds
- SAC -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.2 – 113.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −33 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +25 Elo | SAC 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 107.822nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 116.823rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −9.028th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 105.224th of 30 |
| 13th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.2 | Pace | 99.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.