Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Jamal MurrayAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–125
- Q40.1Dereck Lively II offensive rebound114–125
- Q41.1Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot three point jumper114–125
- Q42.0Jaden Hardy offensive rebound114–125
- Q45.0Michael Porter Jr. blocks Olivier-Maxence Prosper 's 7-foot jumper114–125
- Q410.1shot clock turnover114–125
- Q434.0Josh Green makes dunk (Jaden Hardy assists)114–125
- Q437.1Nikola Jokic makes 9-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)112–125
- Q456.1Dereck Lively II makes 2-foot two point shot (Josh Green assists)112–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 6 – 5 DEN · DEN 57% → 63% +6DEN 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q110:10Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DAL 6 – 8 DEN · DEN 63% → 69% +6DEN 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q17:30Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 14 – 16 DEN · DAL 26% → 31% +6DAL 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q17:16Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DAL 14 – 19 DEN · DEN 69% → 74% +6DEN 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q23:05Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 49 – 56 DEN · DAL 16% → 22% +6DAL 16% → 22%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 64%
- Fair odds
- DEN -189
- DAL +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.7 – 115.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +134 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +99 Elo | DEN 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 110.818th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.0 | Margin | +7.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 110.812th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 103.64th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+134 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.