Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints22
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds20
Mavericks- Grant WilliamsPoints25
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–114
- Q42.0Grant Williams defensive rebound105–114
- Q45.0Coby White misses 31-foot three point jumper105–114
- Q49.1Dereck Lively II makes free throw 2 of 2105–114
- Q49.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Luka Doncic105–113
- Q49.1Mavericks offensive team rebound105–113
- Q49.1Dereck Lively II misses free throw 1 of 2105–113
- Q49.1Alex Caruso personal take foul105–113
- Q49.1Dereck Lively II defensive rebound105–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:21Jevon Carter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Torrey Craig assists)CHI 86 – 85 DAL · CHI 35% → 48% +13CHI 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q49:40Luka Doncic makes 30-foot step back jumpshotCHI 90 – 88 DAL · DAL 33% → 47% +13DAL 33% → 47%+13 pts
- Q47:11Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)CHI 92 – 93 DAL · DAL 44% → 60% +16DAL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- Q45:38Grant Williams makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Josh Green assists)CHI 96 – 97 DAL · DAL 42% → 60% +18DAL 42% → 60%+18 pts
- Q41:41Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)CHI 100 – 106 DAL · DAL 82% → 96% +14DAL 82% → 96%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 66%
- Fair odds
- DAL -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.7 – 115.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +26 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +116 Elo | DAL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 125.32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 116.321st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +9.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 30103.0 | Offense rating | 119.62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 111.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.9 | Pace | 104.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.