Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints22
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- Coby WhiteAssists8
- Alex CarusoRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game103–104
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime103–104
- OT2.1Torrey Craig enters the game for Coby White103–104
- OT2.1Raptors Full timeout103–104
- OT2.1Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)103–104
- OT4.1Zach LaVine defensive rebound103–101
- OT8.1Alex Caruso blocks Pascal Siakam's layup103–101
- OT32.0DeMar DeRozan makes layup (Nikola Vucevic assists)103–101
- OT39.1Chris Boucher makes jump bank shot (Dennis Schroder assists)103–99
- OT1:00Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound101–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q412.1DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotTOR 91 – 90 CHI · CHI <1% → 21% +20CHI <1% → 21%+20 pts
- Q40.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2TOR 93 – 93 CHI · CHI 0% → 50% +50CHI 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:23Dennis Schroder makes 28-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 96 – 95 CHI · TOR 35% → 56% +20TOR 35% → 56%+20 pts
- OT2:08Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 99 – 99 CHI · TOR 22% → 49% +27TOR 22% → 49%+27 pts
- OT2.1Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)TOR 103 – 104 CHI · CHI <1% → 97% +97CHI <1% → 97%+97 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.3 – 113.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −4 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +15 Elo | CHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3097.0 | Points scored | 104.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3094.0 | Points allowed | 124.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −20.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 3092.1 | Offense rating | 103.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3089.2 | Defense rating | 123.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 30104.9 | Pace | 99.625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Raptors: last 1