Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists10
- Luguentz DortRebounds7
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints20
- Coby WhiteAssists4
- Nikola VucevicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–104
- Q418.1Aleksej Pokusevski defensive rebound124–104
- Q420.1Dalen Terry misses 27-foot three point jumper124–104
- Q441.0Cason Wallace makes dunk (Tre Mann assists)124–104
- Q41:00Ayo Dosunmu makes 7-foot two point shot (Dalen Terry assists)122–104
- Q41:07Dalen Terry defensive rebound122–102
- Q41:10Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot step back jumpshot122–102
- Q41:22Aleksej Pokusevski defensive rebound122–102
- Q41:22Andre Drummond misses tip shot122–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:12Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 68 – 66 CHI · OKC 43% → 53% +9OKC 43% → 53%+9 pts
- Q38:20Zach LaVine makes 30-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)OKC 68 – 69 CHI · CHI 47% → 57% +10CHI 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q38:00Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot step back jumpshotOKC 71 – 69 CHI · OKC 43% → 53% +10OKC 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q35:53Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 76 – 69 CHI · OKC 60% → 70% +9OKC 60% → 70%+9 pts
- Q34:48Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)OKC 79 – 74 CHI · CHI 27% → 36% +9CHI 27% → 36%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 55%
- Fair odds
- CHI -123
- OKC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.8 – 114.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | CHI +36 Elo | CHI 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.