Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Kyle AndersonAssists5
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds14
Raptors- Dennis SchroderPoints22
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–97
- Q40.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)94–97
- Q42.0Rudy Gobert offensive rebound91–97
- Q45.1Mike Conley misses three point jumper91–97
- Q411.1Timberwolves Full timeout91–97
- Q411.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound91–97
- Q413.2Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot three point jumper91–97
- Q419.0Timberwolves Full timeout91–97
- Q419.0Scottie Barnes makes 3-foot dunk (Pascal Siakam assists)91–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:15O.G. Anunoby makes three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIN 80 – 84 TOR · TOR 58% → 73% +15TOR 58% → 73%+15 pts
- Q46:08Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIN 84 – 87 TOR · TOR 52% → 69% +17TOR 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q44:58Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIN 84 – 90 TOR · TOR 71% → 85% +14TOR 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q43:01Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIN 86 – 93 TOR · TOR 81% → 93% +12TOR 81% → 93%+12 pts
- Q42:43Anthony Edwards makes 28-foot step back jumpshotMIN 89 – 93 TOR · MIN 6% → 18% +12MIN 6% → 18%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -132
- MIN +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.6 – 114.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.