Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points30
- Marcus SmartAssists9
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–110
- Q419.0Dereck Lively II defensive rebound125–110
- Q422.0Jacob Gilyard misses 19-foot jumper125–110
- Q438.0Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2125–110
- Q438.0Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2124–110
- Q438.0Jacob Gilyard enters the game for Desmond Bane123–110
- Q438.0GG Jackson enters the game for David Roddy123–110
- Q438.0Kenneth Lofton Jr. enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.123–110
- Q438.0Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Ziaire Williams123–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:28Marcus Smart makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 80 – 78 MEM · MEM 33% → 42% +10MEM 33% → 42%+10 pts
- Q35:12Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 83 – 78 MEM · DAL 58% → 68% +10DAL 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q32:42Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 88 – 84 MEM · DAL 55% → 65% +11DAL 55% → 65%+11 pts
- Q32:10Maxi Kleber makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 91 – 84 MEM · DAL 66% → 75% +10DAL 66% → 75%+10 pts
- Q45:14Desmond Bane makes 28-foot three pointerDAL 110 – 106 MEM · MEM 13% → 26% +13MEM 13% → 26%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -106
- MEM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.8 – 113.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −10 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +21 Elo | DAL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.5 | Points scored | 104.724th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 110.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −6.021st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 100.426th of 30 |
| 25th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 106.111th of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.4 | Pace | 104.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 0–223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.