Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists4
- Nikola VucevicRebounds17
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–105
- Q40.0Zach LaVine defensive rebound112–105
- Q40.0Buddy Hield misses tip shot112–105
- Q44.0Buddy Hield offensive rebound112–105
- Q44.0Tyrese Haliburton misses 26-foot step back jumpshot112–105
- Q48.1Zach LaVine makes free throw 2 of 2112–105
- Q48.1Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2111–105
- Q48.1Andrew Nembhard personal foul110–105
- Q412.1Bulls Full timeout110–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:58Bruce Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CHI 95 – 97 IND · IND 49% → 68% +19IND 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q43:46DeMar DeRozan makes 4-foot two point shotCHI 101 – 99 IND · CHI 45% → 60% +15CHI 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q43:11Zach LaVine makes driving layupCHI 103 – 99 IND · CHI 62% → 76% +14CHI 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q42:54Myles Turner makes three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CHI 103 – 102 IND · IND 23% → 46% +23IND 23% → 46%+23 pts
- Q42:28DeMar DeRozan makes 3-foot two point shotCHI 105 – 102 IND · CHI 55% → 72% +17CHI 55% → 72%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5.5
- IND 70%
- Fair odds
- IND -196
- CHI +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.5 – 116.6 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +37 | CHI: Missing Dalen Terry −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +149 Elo | IND 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30103.3 | Points scored | 134.01st of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 116.521st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.7 | Margin | +17.51st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.5 | Offense rating | 126.11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 109.616th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 106.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−26 Elo- Dalen Terry not with team - g league assignment−2 Elo
Pacers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.